By Michael DeVault, business broker and BBDG Nashville affiliate at BridgePoint Business Group.
If you own a Main Street business in Middle Tennessee and are thinking about a sale, the latest survey of buyers, sellers, and intermediaries shows financing is the dominant concern heading into the end of 2026. That does not mean deals have stopped. It does mean clean books, realistic expectations on price, and a clear picture of what a buyer can finance matter more than they did a few months ago.
DealStream’s Q4 2026 Member Confidence Survey, released November 9 and based on responses from roughly 355 active market participants, found a clear shift toward caution. The share of respondents rating the economy as “bad” rose from 28.8% in the third quarter to 41.9%. About two-thirds (66.1%) now expect acquisition financing to become harder to obtain, up sharply from 44.6% the prior quarter. Nearly as many (68.1%) expect interest rates to rise over the next six months. Almost half (46.7%) expect selling prices to fall, compared with roughly one-third in Q3. At the same time, 43% still expect the number of businesses sold to increase, and 38.9% view current conditions as more favorable for buyers than sellers.
Robert Brauns, founder and CEO of DealStream, noted the contrast: market participants anticipate tighter conditions yet many still expect transactions. He pointed to the need for realistic pricing, creative financing, and flexibility from both sides.
That picture lines up with what closed deals showed in the third quarter. BizBuySell’s Q3 2026 Insight Report recorded 2,132 business sales, down 7% from a year earlier. The median sale price rose 17% to $350,000, largely because a record 22% of transactions were above $1 million. Those larger deals closed at an average of 100.8% of asking price. Businesses below $1 million closed at 93.6% of asking price on average and saw fewer sales. Buyer and seller confidence indexes both declined, and brokers frequently cited SBA financing as a friction point for smaller deals.
New SBA rules that took effect October 1, 2026, add to the practical reality. For most change-of-ownership loans, lenders must see historical earnings that cover debt service by at least 1.25 times (on the last fiscal year or a two-year average). Projections no longer carry the test. An independent valuation ordered by the lender is required in most cases, and acquisitions of $3 million or more need a quality-of-earnings report. Seller notes and certain other sources are limited in how much of the buyer’s required equity injection they can supply.
For an owner, the implication is straightforward. Buyers who rely on SBA financing will underwrite against documented historical cash flow, not hopeful projections. If the business is owner-operated, that starting number is usually Seller’s Discretionary Earnings—the cash available to one working owner after normal, supportable add-backs. Clean, consistent records make that number easier to defend. Surprises in diligence slow or shrink deals when financing is already tighter.
You can review how most owner-operated companies are valued on the how we value a business page, or start with a free directional range from the valuation calculator. Neither is an appraisal or a guaranteed price; both are starting points for a confidential conversation.
Sources: DealStream Q4 2026 Member Confidence Survey (Business Wire / Morningstar, November 9, 2026); BizBuySell Q3 2026 Insight Report (October 20, 2026); SBA SOP 50 10 8.1 effective October 1, 2026 (as described in multiple lender and advisor summaries).
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If you would like a confidential look at what the numbers show for your business, the free valuation calculator is here. Or call 615-240-5235.
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